Waterfront Real Estate Information

Positive "transition" accurately characterizes central Indiana's housing market for 2011. This slow return to balance was aided by multi-decade low mortgage rates coupled with confidence creeping upward, each coalescing to form an attractive purchase environment. And buyers did just what their name implies. Momentum picked up noticeably in the second half of 2011. While Closed Sales for the year were up just 1.2 percent, the six-month review shows an 18.3 percent increase over the same time period in 2010. As a result, inventory levels in many locales have been driven down. For the month of December, Months Supply of Inventory ranks in at 7.7, by far the lowest number in over a year.

The last three months of activity ending in December shows Median Sales Price rising by 0.7 percent to $121,500 and Average Sales Price up over last year by 1.5 percent to $154,378.

Other three-month metrics continue to show positive movement. New Listings were down 13.4 percent, Pending Sales were up 12.2 percent and Closed Sales were up 11.7 percent to 4,437 for the three months ending in December. December-only data also showed a positive lean.

Ultimately, the upcoming spring market should be a major tell about the future direction of housing. Sellers are seeing multiple-offer situations; buyers are seeing sub-4.0 percent loans; supply-demand trends are more balanced. That's a stable foundation and a far cry from 2009.

Central Indiana housing numbers held strong for the month of November, while a 12-month review of key metrics puts the market even or slightly better than 2010. According to the latest MIBOR Monthly Indicators Report of Broker Listing Cooperative® data to be released Tuesday, Dec. 27, pending sales, closed sales, median and average sales prices rose in the three-month comparisons to last year. All those indicators rose in the November only comparison with the exception of median sales price which slipped by 3.2 percent in November to $120,001.

Closed sales were up 13.0 percent in the quarter ending in November compared to the same time period last year. Median sales price rose 4.1 percent and average sales price rose 5.9 percent in the quarter, consistent with the price stability seen all year. New listings were down 10.7 percent in the three months ending in November. Months of supply of inventory dropped slightly to 9.0 months for the quarter.

Monthly numbers are encouraging as well. For the month of November, closed sales rose 15.2 percent over November 2010. Pending sales for the month were up an encouraging 11.9 percent for the month.

 

According to the monthly “Indiana Real Estate Markets Report” today released by the Indiana Association of REALTORS®, activity was high in November with both the number of closed and pending home sales up by double digits year-over-year.

Statewide, when comparing November 2011 to November 2010:

• The number of closed home sales increased 14.2% to 4,411; and
• The number of pending home sales increased 10.4% to 3,959.

“We’re close to being able to say that 2011 was better than the last two years,” said Karl Berron, Chief Executive Officer. “Local housing markets may not be making progress as quickly as we’d like, but they’re making progress and that’s good news for everyone.”

With regard to the slight dip in prices, Berron said REALTORS® were not concerned because year-to-date, the median sale price of homes in Indiana is actually up when compared to 2010 and 2009, and so is the average sale price.

“Home prices here in Indiana have historically held their ground,” said Berron. “It’s one of the reasons we enjoy a homeownership rate of more than seventy percent, and is certainly a positive for would-be home owners who are now shopping with some of the lowest mortgage interest rates in current memory."y

More than a third of all new U.S. home mortgages during 2006 went to people who already owned at least one house. In some of the worst hit state, where average home prices more than doubled from 2000 to 2006, these buyers made up about half of all mortgage purchases during the housing bubble. Buyers owning three or more properties represented the fastest-growing segment of homeowners during that time.

“This may have allowed the bubble to inflate further, which caused millions of owner-occupants to pay more if they wanted to buy a home for their family,” some researchers have noted.

Investors defaulted in large numbers after home values began to drop in 2006. They accounted for more than 25 percent of seriously delinquent mortgage balances nationwide, and more than a third in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada from 2007 to 2009. 

As you hear news like this, please keep in mind that some reports tell us that about half of all homes across the U.S. do not have a mortgage - they are owned free and clear.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), offered his annual analysis of the housing market and provided insight into the year ahead at last week’s REALTORS® Conference and Expo in Anaheim, Calif. He anticipates 2012’s housing market to experience “gradual improvement”. 

Yun explained, “tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back home buyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently. Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly stimulate the market when conditions improve.”

He pointed to tough underwriting standards in the mortgage markets as a key barrier predicting if standards returned to more the “normal” conditions in place before the housing bubble years, sales activity could increase by 15 to 20 percent. He pointed to growing markets such as Bismarck, Boston, Buffalo, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. and identified markets which continue to struggle: Altanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Miami and Phonenix. Across the country, Yun sees little concern for price declines.

Coming off a positive third quarter, central Indiana housing numbers held strong in October. According to the latest MIBOR Monthly Indicators Report of Broker Listing Cooperative® data released today, pending sales, closed sales, median and average sales prices rose in the three-month and one-month comparisons to last year.

Closed sales were up 19.5 percent in the quarter ending in October compared to the same time period last year. Median sales price rose 5.3 percent and average sales price rose 4.3 percent in the quarter, consistent with the price stability seen all year. New listings were down 10.4 percent in the three months ending in October which helped to bring inventory levels down 8.2 percent. Months of supply of inventory sits stubbornly high at 9.9 months for the quarter, but down by 3.7 percent to 9 months even for the month of October.

Monthly numbers are encouraging as well. For the month of October, closed sales rose 13.2 percent over October 2010. Price increases were respectable with median up 3.2 percent to $123,695 and average up 3.5 percent to $160,071. Pending sales for October were up an encouraging 15.5 percent for the month.

By all measures, the third quarter provided the brightest picture of the year for central Indiana’s housing consumers. According to the latest MIBOR Monthly Indicators Report of Broker Listing Cooperative® data released today, pending and closed sales as well as median and average sales price rose in the July through September comparisons of 2011 to 2010.

Closed sales were up 24.1 percent in the third quarter compared to the same time period last year. Both Median and average sales Prices rose 4.1 percent in the quarter, consistent with the price stability seen all year. New listings were down 15 percent in the 3rd quarter which helped to bring inventory levels down 7.7 percent. Months of supply of inventory is still high at 9.9 months for the quarter.

Monthly numbers are encouraging as well. For the month of September only, closed sales increased 11.1 percent over September 2010. Price increases were more robust with a 9.5 percent increase in median sales price in September with average sales price up 8.8 for the month. Pending sales for September were down 5.5 percent over last year.

 

Home prices increased in 12 states and Washington, D.C., on a year-over-year basis in August, according to a home-price report released this week by property data firm CoreLogic.

West Virginia led all states with an 8.6 percent rise in home prices, followed by Wyoming at 3.6 percent, and North Dakota at 3.5 percent. The CoreLogic Home Price Index tracks price changes in repeat sales of homes.

CoreLogic August Home Price Index (year-over-year change)

Source: CoreLogic August Home Price Index. 

At the height of summer, we're finally beginning to move beyond comparisons to the 2010 incentive market.  The three-month and one-month views provide an encouraging picture.  Price continues its steady upward path, providing some stability to the central Indiana housing market. Median Sales Price remained essentially even for the three months ending in July and ticked up slightly by 1.6 percent for the month of July.

Average Sales Price increased 2.2 percent for the three months ending in July and 2.7 percent for July only.  New Listings in the Indianapolis region decreased 19.1 percent to 3,320 for July only and 9.6 percent for the three months ending in July.  The most encouraging signs were in Pending Sales and Closed Sales.

Pending Sales were up 8.0 percent in July and 20.9 percent for the three-month period ending in July.  Closed Sales dipped slightly by 1.1 percent for the same three-month period but posted an impressive 27.9 percent for the month of July.  Recent economic news, budget deal squabbles and the credit downgrade have many questioning the health of the market and specifically the role of mortgage rates. Rightfully so.  While the future is not definite, it appears these events – particularly the downgrade – have done far more damage to the psychology of home buyers and sellers than to mortgage rates themselves. Near-record lows remain, providing an incentive all their own.

Home-sale agreements in the nine-county Indianapolis area rose 16 percent in June compared with the same month a year ago, marking the second straight month of year-over-year increases after 14 months of declining sales.

The back-to-back increases were the first year-over-year rises in home-sale agreements since April 2010.  Sales agreements climbed to 1,967 last month, up from 1,694 in June 2010.

Marion County saw a 13-percent rise in June sales agreements from a year ago. Hamilton County deals rose 23 percent. Madison County saw a 33-percent increase.

Year-to-date sales prices are up 0.5 percent in 2010, from $147,257 to $148,030.